According to veteran Democratic advisor Doug Sosnik, President Joe Biden would have a far “tougher” road than his rival to get the 270 electoral college votes required to win the presidency, as reported in the New York Times.
According to Sosnik’s analysis, seven states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—will choose the president. He added that the former president Donald Trump’s chances of winning one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin make it less likely for Biden to receive 270 electoral votes.
According to a recent Echelon Insights survey, Trump presently leads Biden in five of the six important swing states, with the exception of North Carolina. According to the survey, Trump also has a lead in two of the three states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin), which would hurt Biden’s chances of winning reelection.
- Trump +6 in Arizona
- Trump +10 in Georgia
- Trump + 6 in Michigan
- Trump +7 in Nevada
- Pennsylvania: +4 for Trump
- Biden+1 in Wisconsin
According to Axios, Sosnik illustrated many reasons why Biden will have a more difficult time winning reelection than Trump. These two primary factors Monday:
- Michigan has voted solidly Democratic in the last three election cycles, so Biden can no longer depend on winning the state.
- The Sunbelt battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia saw Biden win big in 2020 thanks to a resounding vote from young and non-white voters. According to polls, Biden’s support among these people has significantly decreased throughout his administration.
The primary reason Trump now has an advantage is Biden’s waning support in the Sun Belt states. According to Sosnik’s Times article, he is having a particularly difficult time there with younger and non-white voters.
Exit polls for 2020 indicate that Mr. Biden received 65% of the vote from Latino voters, who made up around 5% of the electorate in Arizona and Nevada. Additionally, Mr. Biden received 87% of the vote among black voters, who accounted for 23% of the vote in Georgia and 23% in North Carolina. He also won 60% of votes between the ages of 18 and 29. Let us now examine this year: According to a New York Times/Siena College survey conducted over the weekend, Mr. Biden’s support has decreased nationally by 18 points among black voters, 15 points among Latino voters, and 14 points among younger voters. Still, Mr. Biden’s success depends on how well he does in the three industrial states. In the event that Mr. Trump secures victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Mr. Biden’s route to 270 electoral votes gets considerably more confined. The election may depend on who wins Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, two Sun Belt states where abortion will almost certainly be on the ballot, if Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump continue to lead in the areas where they are now polling the highest.”
